Game Forecast · First Pitch 7:05 PM ET
Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
51.3% model probability
- Venue
- Oriole Park at Camden Yards
- Away Probable
- Bryce Elder
- Home Probable
- Brandon Young
Game result and prediction grades
The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.
Final
- Atlanta Braves
- 2
- Baltimore Orioles
- 3
Settled Jul 26, 5:51 AM ET · MLB Advanced Media
- MoneylineWIN
Baltimore Orioles
- Published price
- -112
- Sportsbook
- draftkings
- Model probability
- 51.3%
Graded against the official final score · Jul 26, 5:51 AM ET · source mlb-statsapi
Statvane free prediction
Moneyline: Baltimore Orioles at -112 (draftkings).
Price recorded: 2026-07-25T18:09:34.955Z. Region: us.
Why this is the free angle
- Deterministic model probability: 51.3%.
- No-vig market probability: 50.5%.
- Expected value per unit at the frozen price: -0.0288.
This angle ranks the frozen probability, model-to-market edge, price value, and quote availability together. It is not a guarantee and can lose.
Model probability estimates the outcome. Statvane Confidence measures the quality and stability of the evidence. They are not the same thing.
Uncertainty
- No lineup had been posted for either side at publication.
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