Game Forecast · First Pitch 6:40 PM ET
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs +1.5
75.4% model probability
- Venue
- PNC Park
- Away Probable
- Shota Imanaga
- Home Probable
- Paul Skenes
Game result and prediction grades
The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.
Final
- Chicago Cubs
- 11
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- 0
Settled Jul 26, 5:51 AM ET · MLB Advanced Media
- Run LineWIN
Chicago Cubs +1.5
- Published price
- -210
- Sportsbook
- betmgm
- Model probability
- 75.4%
Graded against the official final score · Jul 26, 5:51 AM ET · source mlb-statsapi
Statvane free prediction
Run Line: Chicago Cubs +1.5 at -210 (betmgm).
Price recorded: 2026-07-25T18:09:34.955Z. Region: us.
Why this is the free angle
- Deterministic model probability: 75.4%.
- No-vig market probability: 64.7%.
- Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.1132.
This angle ranks the frozen probability, model-to-market edge, price value, and quote availability together. It is not a guarantee and can lose.
Model probability estimates the outcome. Statvane Confidence measures the quality and stability of the evidence. They are not the same thing.
Uncertainty
- No lineup had been posted for either side at publication.
Unlock the complete game
1 of 3 Statvane market predictions unlocked. Create a free account to unlock all three predictions for every game.