Game Forecast · First Pitch 6:10 PM ET
Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
62.9% model probability
- Venue
- Tropicana Field
- Away Probable
- Tanner Bibee
- Home Probable
- Nick Martinez
Game result and prediction grades
The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.
Final
- Cleveland Guardians
- 0
- Tampa Bay Rays
- 3
Settled Jul 26, 5:51 AM ET · MLB Advanced Media
- MoneylineWIN
Tampa Bay Rays
- Published price
- -120
- Sportsbook
- fanduel
- Model probability
- 62.9%
Graded against the official final score · Jul 26, 5:51 AM ET · source mlb-statsapi
Statvane free prediction
Moneyline: Tampa Bay Rays at -120 (fanduel).
Price recorded: 2026-07-25T18:09:34.955Z. Region: us.
Why this is the free angle
- Deterministic model probability: 62.9%.
- No-vig market probability: 52.4%.
- Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.1535.
This angle ranks the frozen probability, model-to-market edge, price value, and quote availability together. It is not a guarantee and can lose.
Model probability estimates the outcome. Statvane Confidence measures the quality and stability of the evidence. They are not the same thing.
Uncertainty
- Lineups were projected, not confirmed, and can still change.
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