Skip to content
STATVANE
← 2026-07-25 Slate Board

Game Forecast · First Pitch 7:10 PM ET

Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox

StatVane Editorial: Houston Astros Preferred Over Chicago White Sox

HOU

Away

Houston Astros

at
CHI

Home

Chicago White Sox

Rate FieldStatvane matchup

Qualified angleMixed evidenceDeterministic fallback

StatVane Editorial: Houston Astros Preferred Over Chicago White Sox

Market
Run line
Selection
Houston Astros +1.5
Frozen price
-190 · betmgm
Model
68.6%
No-vig market
62.6%
EV / unit
+0.0467

The deterministic qualified angle is Houston Astros spread from the frozen pregame snapshot.

The deterministic decision is QUALIFIED. Run line selection: Houston Astros +1.5. Frozen price: -190 at betmgm; retrieved 2026-07-25T18:09:34.955Z. Model probability: 68.6%. No-vig market probability: 62.6%. Model edge versus the no-vig market: 6.0 percentage points. Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.0467.

Houston Astros probable starter: Hunter Brown. Chicago White Sox probable starter: Sean Burke.

Houston Astros recent 10-game sample: 5.00 runs scored and 4.30 runs allowed per game. Chicago White Sox recent 10-game sample: 5.80 runs scored and 3.10 runs allowed per game.

Bullpen condition is not modeled yet - LineLab has no reliever-usage feed, so no bullpen claim is made.

Venue: Rate Field; roof: Open. Weather snapshot: 25.3 C, 10.4 km/h wind, cross wind (3B side), 0% precipitation probability.

Run line selection: Houston Astros +1.5. Frozen price: -190 at betmgm; retrieved 2026-07-25T18:09:34.955Z.

Uncertainty and missing evidence

Houston Astros remains the deterministic qualified angle; outcomes remain uncertain.

Fact provenance

Frozen forecast 29ee0293ba94 · snapshot 2026-07-25T18:09:37.475Z · prompt mlb-game-editorial-v5-closed-plan · schema 3.

Odds snapshot bcb40b12-21c6-462c-88fc-284d03eb5707 · retrieved 2026-07-25T18:09:34.955Z · US-region quote — not Ontario-specific; Ontario lines at the same book may differ.

One complete game-specific analysis is public. A verified free account unlocks the other two immutable market projections without changing this published selection.Unlock all three markets
Official result

Game result and prediction grades

The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.

Final

Houston Astros
4
Chicago White Sox
1

Settled Jul 26, 5:51 AM ET · MLB Advanced Media

  • Run LineWon

    Houston Astros +1.5

    Published price
    -190
    Sportsbook
    betmgm
    Model probability
    68.6%

    Graded against the official final score · Jul 26, 5:51 AM ET · source mlb-statsapi