Game Forecast · First Pitch 6:05 PM ET
New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies
Under 8.5
58.1% model probability
- Venue
- Citizens Bank Park
- Away Probable
- Ryan Weathers
- Home Probable
- TBD
Game result and prediction grades
The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.
Final
- New York Yankees
- 3
- Philadelphia Phillies
- 1
Settled Jul 26, 5:51 AM ET · MLB Advanced Media
- TotalWIN
Under 8.5
- Published price
- +115
- Sportsbook
- espnbet
- Model probability
- 58.1%
Graded against the official final score · Jul 26, 5:51 AM ET · source mlb-statsapi
Statvane free prediction
Total: Under 8.5 at +115 (espnbet).
Price recorded: 2026-07-25T18:09:34.955Z. Region: us2.
Why this is the free angle
- Deterministic model probability: 58.1%.
- No-vig market probability: 44.7%.
- Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.2501.
This angle ranks the frozen probability, model-to-market edge, price value, and quote availability together. It is not a guarantee and can lose.
Model probability estimates the outcome. Statvane Confidence measures the quality and stability of the evidence. They are not the same thing.
Uncertainty
- At least one probable starting pitcher was not announced at publication.
- No lineup had been posted for either side at publication.
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