Skip to content
STATVANE
← 2026-07-25 Slate Board

Game Forecast · First Pitch 6:05 PM ET

New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies

StatVane Editorial: Under Preferred for New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies

NY

Away

New York Yankees

at
PHL

Home

Philadelphia Phillies

Citizens Bank ParkStatvane matchup

Qualified angleMixed evidenceDeterministic fallback

StatVane Editorial: Under Preferred for New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies

Market
Total
Selection
Under 8.5
Frozen price
+115 · espnbet
Model
58.1%
No-vig market
44.7%
EV / unit
+0.2501

The deterministic qualified angle is Under total from the frozen pregame snapshot.

The deterministic decision is QUALIFIED. Total selection: Under 8.5. Frozen price: +115 at espnbet; retrieved 2026-07-25T18:09:34.955Z. Model probability: 58.1%. No-vig market probability: 44.7%. Model edge versus the no-vig market: 13.4 percentage points. Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.2501.

New York Yankees probable starter: Ryan Weathers.

New York Yankees recent 10-game sample: 3.30 runs scored and 2.90 runs allowed per game. Philadelphia Phillies recent 10-game sample: 3.50 runs scored and 4.20 runs allowed per game.

Bullpen condition is not modeled yet - LineLab has no reliever-usage feed, so no bullpen claim is made.

Venue: Citizens Bank Park; roof: Open. Weather snapshot: 22.2 C, 9.0 km/h wind, cross wind (3B side), 0% precipitation probability.

Total selection: Under 8.5. Frozen price: +115 at espnbet; retrieved 2026-07-25T18:09:34.955Z.

Uncertainty and missing evidence

Under remains the deterministic qualified angle; outcomes remain uncertain.

Fact provenance

Frozen forecast 0974ac97f27c · snapshot 2026-07-25T18:09:37.475Z · prompt mlb-game-editorial-v5-closed-plan · schema 3.

Odds snapshot fee94fd0-afb0-48b0-a586-3d0817a07ed4 · retrieved 2026-07-25T18:09:34.955Z · US-region quote — not Ontario-specific; Ontario lines at the same book may differ.

One complete game-specific analysis is public. A verified free account unlocks the other two immutable market projections without changing this published selection.Unlock all three markets
Official result

Game result and prediction grades

The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.

Final

New York Yankees
3
Philadelphia Phillies
1

Settled Jul 26, 5:51 AM ET · MLB Advanced Media

  • TotalWon

    Under 8.5

    Published price
    +115
    Sportsbook
    espnbet
    Model probability
    58.1%

    Graded against the official final score · Jul 26, 5:51 AM ET · source mlb-statsapi