Game Forecast · First Pitch 4:10 PM ET
San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins
San Diego Padres +1.5
70.1% model probability
- Venue
- loanDepot park
- Away Probable
- Randy Vásquez
- Home Probable
- Eury Pérez
Game result and prediction grades
The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.
Final
- San Diego Padres
- 7
- Miami Marlins
- 2
Settled Jul 26, 5:51 AM ET · MLB Advanced Media
- Run LineWIN
San Diego Padres +1.5
- Published price
- -176
- Sportsbook
- draftkings
- Model probability
- 70.1%
Graded against the official final score · Jul 26, 5:51 AM ET · source mlb-statsapi
Statvane free prediction
Run Line: San Diego Padres +1.5 at -176 (draftkings).
Price recorded: 2026-07-25T18:09:34.955Z. Region: us.
Why this is the free angle
- Deterministic model probability: 70.1%.
- No-vig market probability: 61.0%.
- Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.0996.
This angle ranks the frozen probability, model-to-market edge, price value, and quote availability together. It is not a guarantee and can lose.
Model probability estimates the outcome. Statvane Confidence measures the quality and stability of the evidence. They are not the same thing.
Uncertainty
- Lineups were projected, not confirmed, and can still change.
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