Game Forecast · First Pitch 4:10 PM ET
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
70.2% model probability
- Venue
- Fenway Park
- Away Probable
- Dylan Cease
- Home Probable
- Sonny Gray
Game result and prediction grades
The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.
Final
- Toronto Blue Jays
- 6
- Boston Red Sox
- 0
Settled Jul 26, 5:51 AM ET · MLB Advanced Media
- MoneylineLOSS
Boston Red Sox
- Published price
- -108
- Sportsbook
- fanduel
- Model probability
- 70.2%
Graded against the official final score · Jul 26, 5:51 AM ET · source mlb-statsapi
Statvane free prediction
Moneyline: Boston Red Sox at -108 (fanduel).
Price recorded: 2026-07-25T18:09:34.955Z. Region: us.
Why this is the free angle
- Deterministic model probability: 70.2%.
- No-vig market probability: 50.0%.
- Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.3512.
This angle ranks the frozen probability, model-to-market edge, price value, and quote availability together. It is not a guarantee and can lose.
Model probability estimates the outcome. Statvane Confidence measures the quality and stability of the evidence. They are not the same thing.
Uncertainty
- Lineups were projected, not confirmed, and can still change.
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