Game Forecast · First Pitch 1:35 PM ET

Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals

StatVane Editorial: Over Preferred for Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals

PHX

Away

Arizona Diamondbacks

at5:35 p.m.

Home

Washington Nationals

Nationals ParkStatvane matchup

Qualified angleMixed evidenceDeterministic fallback

StatVane Editorial: Over Preferred for Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals

Market: Total
Selection: Over 10.5
Frozen price: +100 · espnbet
Model: 82.9%
No-vig market: 47.8%
EV / unit: +0.6579

The deterministic qualified angle is Over total from the frozen pregame snapshot.

The deterministic decision is QUALIFIED. Total selection: Over 10.5. Frozen price: +100 at espnbet; retrieved 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z. Model probability: 82.9%. No-vig market probability: 47.8%. Model edge versus the no-vig market: 35.1 percentage points. Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.6579.

Arizona Diamondbacks probable starter: Kohl Drake. Washington Nationals probable starter: Miles Mikolas.

Arizona Diamondbacks recent 10-game sample: 6.70 runs scored and 4.30 runs allowed per game. Washington Nationals recent 10-game sample: 6.10 runs scored and 4.90 runs allowed per game.

Bullpen condition is not modeled yet - LineLab has no reliever-usage feed, so no bullpen claim is made.

Venue: Nationals Park; roof: Open. Weather snapshot: 29.4 C, 4.8 km/h wind, blowing out to CF, 2% precipitation probability.

Total selection: Over 10.5. Frozen price: +100 at espnbet; retrieved 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z.

Uncertainty and missing evidence

Over remains the deterministic qualified angle; outcomes remain uncertain.

Fact provenance

Frozen forecast c671f911a8c1 · snapshot 2026-07-26T09:52:02.277Z · prompt mlb-game-editorial-v5-closed-plan · schema 3.

Odds snapshot c66d39ed-7b02-411f-871c-502f8cf364d8 · retrieved 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z · US-region quote — not Ontario-specific; Ontario lines at the same book may differ.

One complete game-specific analysis is public. A verified free account unlocks the other two immutable market projections without changing this published selection.Unlock all three markets

Official result

Game result and prediction grades

The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.

Final

Arizona Diamondbacks: 7
Washington Nationals: 10

Settled Jul 26, 7:08 PM ET · MLB Advanced Media

TotalWon
Over 10.5
Published price
+100
Sportsbook
espnbet
Model probability
82.9%
Graded against the official final score · Jul 26, 7:08 PM ET · source mlb-statsapi