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Game Forecast · First Pitch 1:35 PM ET

Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles

StatVane Editorial: Over Preferred for Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles

ATL

Away

Atlanta Braves

at
BAL

Home

Baltimore Orioles

Oriole Park at Camden YardsStatvane matchup

Qualified angleMixed evidenceDeterministic fallback

StatVane Editorial: Over Preferred for Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles

Market
Total
Selection
Over 8.5
Frozen price
-120 · draftkings
Model
72.2%
No-vig market
52.1%
EV / unit
+0.3230

The deterministic qualified angle is Over total from the frozen pregame snapshot.

The deterministic decision is QUALIFIED. Total selection: Over 8.5. Frozen price: -120 at draftkings; retrieved 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z. Model probability: 72.2%. No-vig market probability: 52.1%. Model edge versus the no-vig market: 20.1 percentage points. Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.3230.

Atlanta Braves probable starter: Reynaldo López. Baltimore Orioles probable starter: Shane Baz.

Atlanta Braves recent 10-game sample: 6.00 runs scored and 4.70 runs allowed per game. Baltimore Orioles recent 10-game sample: 5.00 runs scored and 3.20 runs allowed per game.

Bullpen condition is not modeled yet - LineLab has no reliever-usage feed, so no bullpen claim is made.

Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards; roof: Open. Weather snapshot: 28.5 C, 2.4 km/h wind, blowing out to CF, 1% precipitation probability.

Total selection: Over 8.5. Frozen price: -120 at draftkings; retrieved 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z.

Uncertainty and missing evidence

Over remains the deterministic qualified angle; outcomes remain uncertain.

Fact provenance

Frozen forecast 7ecc25dffbc2 · snapshot 2026-07-26T09:52:02.277Z · prompt mlb-game-editorial-v5-closed-plan · schema 3.

Odds snapshot d57df6f5-8d3b-4600-b764-094c43121cfb · retrieved 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z · US-region quote — not Ontario-specific; Ontario lines at the same book may differ.

One complete game-specific analysis is public. A verified free account unlocks the other two immutable market projections without changing this published selection.Unlock all three markets
Official result

Game result and prediction grades

The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.

Final

Atlanta Braves
3
Baltimore Orioles
2

Settled Jul 26, 7:08 PM ET · MLB Advanced Media

  • TotalLost

    Over 8.5

    Published price
    -120
    Sportsbook
    draftkings
    Model probability
    72.2%

    Graded against the official final score · Jul 26, 7:08 PM ET · source mlb-statsapi