Game Forecast · First Pitch 1:35 PM ET
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
Over 8.5
72.2% model probability
- Venue
- PNC Park
- Away Probable
- Jameson Taillon
- Home Probable
- Braxton Ashcraft
Game result and prediction grades
The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.
Final
- Chicago Cubs
- 7
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- 8
Settled Jul 26, 7:08 PM ET · MLB Advanced Media
- TotalWIN
Over 8.5
- Published price
- -120
- Sportsbook
- betmgm
- Model probability
- 72.2%
Graded against the official final score · Jul 26, 7:08 PM ET · source mlb-statsapi
Statvane free prediction
Total: Over 8.5 at -120 (betmgm).
Price recorded: 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z. Region: us.
Why this is the free angle
- Deterministic model probability: 72.2%.
- No-vig market probability: 52.2%.
- Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.3243.
This angle ranks the frozen probability, model-to-market edge, price value, and quote availability together. It is not a guarantee and can lose.
Model probability estimates the outcome. Statvane Confidence measures the quality and stability of the evidence. They are not the same thing.
Uncertainty
- No lineup had been posted for either side at publication.
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