Game Forecast · First Pitch 1:35 PM ET

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates

StatVane Editorial: Over Preferred for Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates

CHI

Away

Chicago Cubs

at5:35 p.m.

PIT

Home

Pittsburgh Pirates

PNC ParkStatvane matchup

Qualified angleMixed evidenceDeterministic fallback

StatVane Editorial: Over Preferred for Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates

Market: Total
Selection: Over 8.5
Frozen price: -120 · betmgm
Model: 72.2%
No-vig market: 52.2%
EV / unit: +0.3243

The deterministic qualified angle is Over total from the frozen pregame snapshot.

The deterministic decision is QUALIFIED. Total selection: Over 8.5. Frozen price: -120 at betmgm; retrieved 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z. Model probability: 72.2%. No-vig market probability: 52.2%. Model edge versus the no-vig market: 20.1 percentage points. Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.3243.

Chicago Cubs probable starter: Jameson Taillon. Pittsburgh Pirates probable starter: Braxton Ashcraft.

Chicago Cubs recent 10-game sample: 5.20 runs scored and 3.60 runs allowed per game. Pittsburgh Pirates recent 10-game sample: 5.30 runs scored and 3.60 runs allowed per game.

Bullpen condition is not modeled yet - LineLab has no reliever-usage feed, so no bullpen claim is made.

Venue: PNC Park; roof: Open. Weather snapshot: 27.6 C, 6.9 km/h wind, blowing out to CF, 0% precipitation probability.

Total selection: Over 8.5. Frozen price: -120 at betmgm; retrieved 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z.

Uncertainty and missing evidence

Over remains the deterministic qualified angle; outcomes remain uncertain.

Fact provenance

Frozen forecast 34ae74a1e2eb · snapshot 2026-07-26T09:52:02.277Z · prompt mlb-game-editorial-v5-closed-plan · schema 3.

Odds snapshot 9f8a886b-1a7f-455a-9845-bf3f5495c406 · retrieved 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z · US-region quote — not Ontario-specific; Ontario lines at the same book may differ.

One complete game-specific analysis is public. A verified free account unlocks the other two immutable market projections without changing this published selection.Unlock all three markets

Official result

Game result and prediction grades

The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.

Final

Chicago Cubs: 7
Pittsburgh Pirates: 8

Settled Jul 26, 7:08 PM ET · MLB Advanced Media

TotalWon
Over 8.5
Published price
-120
Sportsbook
betmgm
Model probability
72.2%
Graded against the official final score · Jul 26, 7:08 PM ET · source mlb-statsapi