Game Forecast · First Pitch 2:15 PM ET
Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds +1.5
72.0% model probability
- Venue
- Busch Stadium
- Away Probable
- Andrew Abbott
- Home Probable
- Kyle Leahy
Game result and prediction grades
The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.
Final
- Cincinnati Reds
- 5
- St. Louis Cardinals
- 3
Settled Jul 26, 7:08 PM ET · MLB Advanced Media
- Run LineWIN
Cincinnati Reds +1.5
- Published price
- -182
- Sportsbook
- fanduel
- Model probability
- 72.0%
Graded against the official final score · Jul 26, 7:08 PM ET · source mlb-statsapi
Statvane free prediction
Run Line: Cincinnati Reds +1.5 at -182 (fanduel).
Price recorded: 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z. Region: us.
Why this is the free angle
- Deterministic model probability: 72.0%.
- No-vig market probability: 61.7%.
- Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.1150.
This angle ranks the frozen probability, model-to-market edge, price value, and quote availability together. It is not a guarantee and can lose.
Model probability estimates the outcome. Statvane Confidence measures the quality and stability of the evidence. They are not the same thing.
Uncertainty
- No lineup had been posted for either side at publication.
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