Game Forecast · First Pitch 2:15 PM ET

Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals

StatVane Editorial: Cincinnati Reds Preferred Over St. Louis Cardinals

CIN

Away

Cincinnati Reds

at6:15 p.m.

STL

Home

St. Louis Cardinals

Busch StadiumStatvane matchup

Qualified angleMixed evidenceDeterministic fallback

StatVane Editorial: Cincinnati Reds Preferred Over St. Louis Cardinals

Market: Run line
Selection: Cincinnati Reds +1.5
Frozen price: -182 · fanduel
Model: 72.0%
No-vig market: 61.7%
EV / unit: +0.1150

The deterministic qualified angle is Cincinnati Reds spread from the frozen pregame snapshot.

The deterministic decision is QUALIFIED. Run line selection: Cincinnati Reds +1.5. Frozen price: -182 at fanduel; retrieved 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z. Model probability: 72.0%. No-vig market probability: 61.7%. Model edge versus the no-vig market: 10.2 percentage points. Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.1150.

Cincinnati Reds probable starter: Andrew Abbott. St. Louis Cardinals probable starter: Kyle Leahy.

Cincinnati Reds recent 10-game sample: 4.30 runs scored and 4.60 runs allowed per game. St. Louis Cardinals recent 10-game sample: 3.40 runs scored and 4.40 runs allowed per game.

Bullpen condition is not modeled yet - LineLab has no reliever-usage feed, so no bullpen claim is made.

Venue: Busch Stadium; roof: Open. Weather snapshot: 35.4 C, 4.4 km/h wind, blowing out to CF, 12% precipitation probability.

Run line selection: Cincinnati Reds +1.5. Frozen price: -182 at fanduel; retrieved 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z.

Uncertainty and missing evidence

Cincinnati Reds remains the deterministic qualified angle; outcomes remain uncertain.

Fact provenance

Frozen forecast 6a549ac70b2f · snapshot 2026-07-26T09:52:02.277Z · prompt mlb-game-editorial-v5-closed-plan · schema 3.

Odds snapshot db5b96f7-29e0-4fd9-981f-8d01e27f3d8a · retrieved 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z · US-region quote — not Ontario-specific; Ontario lines at the same book may differ.

One complete game-specific analysis is public. A verified free account unlocks the other two immutable market projections without changing this published selection.Unlock all three markets

Official result

Game result and prediction grades

The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.

Final

Cincinnati Reds: 5
St. Louis Cardinals: 3

Settled Jul 26, 7:08 PM ET · MLB Advanced Media

Run LineWon
Cincinnati Reds +1.5
Published price
-182
Sportsbook
fanduel
Model probability
72.0%
Graded against the official final score · Jul 26, 7:08 PM ET · source mlb-statsapi