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Game Forecast · First Pitch 1:40 PM ET

Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers

StatVane Editorial: Over Preferred for Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers

KC

Away

Kansas City Royals

at
DET

Home

Detroit Tigers

Comerica ParkStatvane matchup

Qualified angleMixed evidenceDeterministic fallback

StatVane Editorial: Over Preferred for Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers

Market
Total
Selection
Over 9.5
Frozen price
+110 · espnbet
Model
89.7%
No-vig market
45.7%
EV / unit
+0.8833

The deterministic qualified angle is Over total from the frozen pregame snapshot.

The deterministic decision is QUALIFIED. Total selection: Over 9.5. Frozen price: +110 at espnbet; retrieved 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z. Model probability: 89.7%. No-vig market probability: 45.7%. Model edge versus the no-vig market: 44.0 percentage points. Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.8833.

Kansas City Royals probable starter: Luinder Avila. Detroit Tigers probable starter: Framber Valdez.

Kansas City Royals recent 10-game sample: 3.40 runs scored and 5.50 runs allowed per game. Detroit Tigers recent 10-game sample: 3.40 runs scored and 3.50 runs allowed per game.

Bullpen condition is not modeled yet - LineLab has no reliever-usage feed, so no bullpen claim is made.

Venue: Comerica Park; roof: Open. Weather snapshot: 27.6 C, 12.6 km/h wind, cross wind (3B side), 6% precipitation probability.

Total selection: Over 9.5. Frozen price: +110 at espnbet; retrieved 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z.

Uncertainty and missing evidence

Over remains the deterministic qualified angle; outcomes remain uncertain.

Fact provenance

Frozen forecast 125c98428af7 · snapshot 2026-07-26T09:52:02.277Z · prompt mlb-game-editorial-v5-closed-plan · schema 3.

Odds snapshot cf25d75b-f284-4cf5-afa4-4c75b551d88b · retrieved 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z · US-region quote — not Ontario-specific; Ontario lines at the same book may differ.

One complete game-specific analysis is public. A verified free account unlocks the other two immutable market projections without changing this published selection.Unlock all three markets
Official result

Game result and prediction grades

The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.

Final

Kansas City Royals
5
Detroit Tigers
4

Settled Jul 26, 7:08 PM ET · MLB Advanced Media

  • TotalLost

    Over 9.5

    Published price
    +110
    Sportsbook
    espnbet
    Model probability
    89.7%

    Graded against the official final score · Jul 26, 7:08 PM ET · source mlb-statsapi