Game Forecast · First Pitch 1:40 PM ET
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
StatVane Editorial: Over Preferred for Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
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Citi FieldStatvane matchup
StatVane Editorial: Over Preferred for Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
- Market
- Total
- Selection
- Over 9.5
- Frozen price
- +105 · espnbet
- Model
- 68.5%
- No-vig market
- 46.8%
- EV / unit
- +0.4039
The deterministic qualified angle is Over total from the frozen pregame snapshot.
The deterministic decision is QUALIFIED. Total selection: Over 9.5. Frozen price: +105 at espnbet; retrieved 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z. Model probability: 68.5%. No-vig market probability: 46.8%. Model edge versus the no-vig market: 21.7 percentage points. Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.4039.
Los Angeles Dodgers probable starter: Emmet Sheehan. New York Mets probable starter: Freddy Peralta.
Los Angeles Dodgers recent 10-game sample: 4.10 runs scored and 4.60 runs allowed per game. New York Mets recent 10-game sample: 2.70 runs scored and 3.70 runs allowed per game.
Bullpen condition is not modeled yet - LineLab has no reliever-usage feed, so no bullpen claim is made.
Venue: Citi Field; roof: Open. Weather snapshot: 29.4 C, 8.7 km/h wind, blowing in from CF, 0% precipitation probability.
Total selection: Over 9.5. Frozen price: +105 at espnbet; retrieved 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z.
Uncertainty and missing evidence
Over remains the deterministic qualified angle; outcomes remain uncertain.
Fact provenance
Frozen forecast 12054b5c616a · snapshot 2026-07-26T09:52:02.277Z · prompt mlb-game-editorial-v5-closed-plan · schema 3.
Odds snapshot e5818e1e-bccf-46e2-b301-532fc5a5d3d6 · retrieved 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z · US-region quote — not Ontario-specific; Ontario lines at the same book may differ.
Game result and prediction grades
The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.
Final
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- 3
- New York Mets
- 8
Settled Jul 26, 7:08 PM ET · MLB Advanced Media
- TotalWon
Over 9.5
- Published price
- +105
- Sportsbook
- espnbet
- Model probability
- 68.5%
Graded against the official final score · Jul 26, 7:08 PM ET · source mlb-statsapi