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Game Forecast · First Pitch 7:20 PM ET

New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies

StatVane Editorial: New York Yankees Preferred Over Philadelphia Phillies

NY

Away

New York Yankees

at
PHL

Home

Philadelphia Phillies

Citizens Bank ParkStatvane matchup

Qualified angleMixed evidenceDeterministic fallback

StatVane Editorial: New York Yankees Preferred Over Philadelphia Phillies

Market
Run line
Selection
New York Yankees +1.5
Frozen price
-145 · betmgm
Model
71.0%
No-vig market
56.3%
EV / unit
+0.2000

The deterministic qualified angle is New York Yankees spread from the frozen pregame snapshot.

The deterministic decision is QUALIFIED. Run line selection: New York Yankees +1.5. Frozen price: -145 at betmgm; retrieved 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z. Model probability: 71.0%. No-vig market probability: 56.3%. Model edge versus the no-vig market: 14.7 percentage points. Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.2000.

New York Yankees probable starter: Will Warren. Philadelphia Phillies probable starter: Cristopher Sánchez.

New York Yankees recent 10-game sample: 3.30 runs scored and 2.90 runs allowed per game. Philadelphia Phillies recent 10-game sample: 3.50 runs scored and 4.20 runs allowed per game.

Bullpen condition is not modeled yet - LineLab has no reliever-usage feed, so no bullpen claim is made.

Venue: Citizens Bank Park; roof: Open. Weather snapshot: 27.7 C, 9.4 km/h wind, blowing out to CF, 2% precipitation probability.

Run line selection: New York Yankees +1.5. Frozen price: -145 at betmgm; retrieved 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z.

Uncertainty and missing evidence

New York Yankees remains the deterministic qualified angle; outcomes remain uncertain.

Fact provenance

Frozen forecast 8f0bc9448757 · snapshot 2026-07-26T09:52:02.277Z · prompt mlb-game-editorial-v5-closed-plan · schema 3.

Odds snapshot b489db86-0e86-4c4c-84de-43445002921a · retrieved 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z · US-region quote — not Ontario-specific; Ontario lines at the same book may differ.

One complete game-specific analysis is public. A verified free account unlocks the other two immutable market projections without changing this published selection.Unlock all three markets
Official result

Game result and prediction grades

The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.

Final

New York Yankees
4
Philadelphia Phillies
11

Settled Jul 27, 1:19 AM ET · MLB Advanced Media

  • Run LineLost

    New York Yankees +1.5

    Published price
    -145
    Sportsbook
    betmgm
    Model probability
    71.0%

    Graded against the official final score · Jul 27, 1:19 AM ET · source mlb-statsapi