Game Forecast · First Pitch 7:20 PM ET
New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees +1.5
71.0% model probability
- Venue
- Citizens Bank Park
- Away Probable
- Will Warren
- Home Probable
- Cristopher Sánchez
Game result and prediction grades
The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.
Final
- New York Yankees
- 4
- Philadelphia Phillies
- 11
Settled Jul 27, 1:19 AM ET · MLB Advanced Media
- Run LineLOSS
New York Yankees +1.5
- Published price
- -145
- Sportsbook
- betmgm
- Model probability
- 71.0%
Graded against the official final score · Jul 27, 1:19 AM ET · source mlb-statsapi
Statvane free prediction
Run Line: New York Yankees +1.5 at -145 (betmgm).
Price recorded: 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z. Region: us.
Why this is the free angle
- Deterministic model probability: 71.0%.
- No-vig market probability: 56.3%.
- Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.2000.
This angle ranks the frozen probability, model-to-market edge, price value, and quote availability together. It is not a guarantee and can lose.
Model probability estimates the outcome. Statvane Confidence measures the quality and stability of the evidence. They are not the same thing.
Uncertainty
- No lineup had been posted for either side at publication.
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