Skip to content
STATVANE
← 2026-07-26 Slate Board

Game Forecast · First Pitch 1:40 PM ET

San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins

StatVane Editorial: San Diego Padres Preferred Over Miami Marlins

SD

Away

San Diego Padres

at
MIA

Home

Miami Marlins

loanDepot parkStatvane matchup

Qualified angleMixed evidenceDeterministic fallback

StatVane Editorial: San Diego Padres Preferred Over Miami Marlins

Market
Run line
Selection
San Diego Padres +1.5
Frozen price
-188 · draftkings
Model
71.4%
No-vig market
62.5%
EV / unit
+0.0930

The deterministic qualified angle is San Diego Padres spread from the frozen pregame snapshot.

The deterministic decision is QUALIFIED. Run line selection: San Diego Padres +1.5. Frozen price: -188 at draftkings; retrieved 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z. Model probability: 71.4%. No-vig market probability: 62.5%. Model edge versus the no-vig market: 8.9 percentage points. Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.0930.

San Diego Padres probable starter: Walker Buehler. Miami Marlins probable starter: Janson Junk.

San Diego Padres recent 10-game sample: 6.40 runs scored and 4.70 runs allowed per game. Miami Marlins recent 10-game sample: 2.50 runs scored and 4.70 runs allowed per game.

Bullpen condition is not modeled yet - LineLab has no reliever-usage feed, so no bullpen claim is made.

Venue: loanDepot park; roof: Retractable. Weather snapshot: 25.3 C, 9.5 km/h wind, blowing out to CF, 33% precipitation probability.

Run line selection: San Diego Padres +1.5. Frozen price: -188 at draftkings; retrieved 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z.

Uncertainty and missing evidence

San Diego Padres remains the deterministic qualified angle; outcomes remain uncertain.

Fact provenance

Frozen forecast 9f85aa750f7b · snapshot 2026-07-26T09:52:02.277Z · prompt mlb-game-editorial-v5-closed-plan · schema 3.

Odds snapshot d2470515-448f-471f-84bd-62ad0a8a28d5 · retrieved 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z · US-region quote — not Ontario-specific; Ontario lines at the same book may differ.

One complete game-specific analysis is public. A verified free account unlocks the other two immutable market projections without changing this published selection.Unlock all three markets
Official result

Game result and prediction grades

The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.

Final

San Diego Padres
5
Miami Marlins
3

Settled Jul 26, 7:08 PM ET · MLB Advanced Media

  • Run LineWon

    San Diego Padres +1.5

    Published price
    -188
    Sportsbook
    draftkings
    Model probability
    71.4%

    Graded against the official final score · Jul 26, 7:08 PM ET · source mlb-statsapi