Game Forecast · First Pitch 1:40 PM ET
San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins
San Diego Padres +1.5
71.4% model probability
- Venue
- loanDepot park
- Away Probable
- Walker Buehler
- Home Probable
- Janson Junk
Game result and prediction grades
The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.
Final
- San Diego Padres
- 5
- Miami Marlins
- 3
Settled Jul 26, 7:08 PM ET · MLB Advanced Media
- Run LineWIN
San Diego Padres +1.5
- Published price
- -188
- Sportsbook
- draftkings
- Model probability
- 71.4%
Graded against the official final score · Jul 26, 7:08 PM ET · source mlb-statsapi
Statvane free prediction
Run Line: San Diego Padres +1.5 at -188 (draftkings).
Price recorded: 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z. Region: us.
Why this is the free angle
- Deterministic model probability: 71.4%.
- No-vig market probability: 62.5%.
- Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.0930.
This angle ranks the frozen probability, model-to-market edge, price value, and quote availability together. It is not a guarantee and can lose.
Model probability estimates the outcome. Statvane Confidence measures the quality and stability of the evidence. They are not the same thing.
Uncertainty
- No lineup had been posted for either side at publication.
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