Game Forecast · First Pitch 1:35 PM ET
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
78.1% model probability
- Venue
- Fenway Park
- Away Probable
- Kevin Gausman
- Home Probable
- Ranger Suarez
Game result and prediction grades
The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.
Final
- Toronto Blue Jays
- 1
- Boston Red Sox
- 6
Settled Jul 26, 7:08 PM ET · MLB Advanced Media
- MoneylineWIN
Boston Red Sox
- Published price
- -140
- Sportsbook
- espnbet
- Model probability
- 78.1%
Graded against the official final score · Jul 26, 7:08 PM ET · source mlb-statsapi
Statvane free prediction
Moneyline: Boston Red Sox at -140 (espnbet).
Price recorded: 2026-07-26T09:51:59.733Z. Region: us2.
Why this is the free angle
- Deterministic model probability: 78.1%.
- No-vig market probability: 56.2%.
- Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.3392.
This angle ranks the frozen probability, model-to-market edge, price value, and quote availability together. It is not a guarantee and can lose.
Model probability estimates the outcome. Statvane Confidence measures the quality and stability of the evidence. They are not the same thing.
Uncertainty
- No lineup had been posted for either side at publication.
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