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Game Forecast · First Pitch 6:40 PM ET

Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates

StatVane Editorial: Over Preferred for Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates

PHX

Away

Arizona Diamondbacks

at
PIT

Home

Pittsburgh Pirates

PNC ParkStatvane matchup

Qualified angleMixed evidenceDeterministic fallback

StatVane Editorial: Over Preferred for Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates

Market
Total
Selection
Over 9
Frozen price
-105 · draftkings
Model
81.4%
No-vig market
48.9%
EV / unit
+0.5892

The deterministic qualified angle is Over total from the frozen pregame snapshot.

The deterministic decision is QUALIFIED. Total selection: Over 9. Frozen price: -105 at draftkings; retrieved 2026-07-27T11:42:26.971Z. Model probability: 81.4%. No-vig market probability: 48.9%. Model edge versus the no-vig market: 32.5 percentage points. Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.5892.

Arizona Diamondbacks probable starter: Merrill Kelly. Pittsburgh Pirates probable starter: Mitch Keller.

Arizona Diamondbacks recent 10-game sample: 6.70 runs scored and 4.30 runs allowed per game. Pittsburgh Pirates recent 10-game sample: 5.30 runs scored and 3.60 runs allowed per game.

Bullpen condition is not modeled yet - Statvane has no reliever-usage feed, so no bullpen claim is made.

Venue: PNC Park; roof: Open. Weather snapshot: 31.7 C, 13.1 km/h wind, cross wind (3B side), 6% precipitation probability.

Total selection: Over 9. Frozen price: -105 at draftkings; retrieved 2026-07-27T11:42:26.971Z.

Uncertainty and missing evidence

Over remains the deterministic qualified angle; outcomes remain uncertain.

Fact provenance

Frozen forecast 07b8e1978ad3 · snapshot 2026-07-27T14:56:27.855Z · prompt mlb-game-editorial-v5-closed-plan · schema 3.

Odds snapshot c0959bda-29bc-4b2c-a4f8-da610928d36b · retrieved 2026-07-27T11:42:26.971Z · US-region quote — not Ontario-specific; Ontario lines at the same book may differ.

One complete game-specific analysis is public. A verified free account unlocks the other two immutable market projections without changing this published selection.Unlock all three markets
Official result

Game result and prediction grades

The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.

Final

Arizona Diamondbacks
2
Pittsburgh Pirates
3

Settled Jul 27, 10:00 PM ET · MLB Advanced Media

  • TotalLost

    Over 9

    Published price
    -105
    Sportsbook
    draftkings
    Model probability
    81.4%

    Graded against the official final score · Jul 27, 11:00 PM ET · source mlb-statsapi