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STATVANE
← 2026-07-27 Slate Board

Game Forecast · First Pitch 7:45 PM ET

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals

StatVane Editorial: Over Preferred for Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals

CHI

Away

Chicago Cubs

at
STL

Home

St. Louis Cardinals

Busch StadiumStatvane matchup

Qualified angleMixed evidenceDeterministic fallback

StatVane Editorial: Over Preferred for Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals

Market
Total
Selection
Over 9.5
Frozen price
-110 · fanduel
Model
56.4%
No-vig market
50.0%
EV / unit
+0.0769

The deterministic qualified angle is Over total from the frozen pregame snapshot.

The deterministic decision is QUALIFIED. Total selection: Over 9.5. Frozen price: -110 at fanduel; retrieved 2026-07-27T11:42:26.971Z. Model probability: 56.4%. No-vig market probability: 50.0%. Model edge versus the no-vig market: 6.4 percentage points. Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.0769.

Chicago Cubs probable starter: David Peterson.

Chicago Cubs recent 10-game sample: 5.20 runs scored and 3.60 runs allowed per game. St. Louis Cardinals recent 10-game sample: 3.40 runs scored and 4.40 runs allowed per game.

Bullpen condition is not modeled yet - Statvane has no reliever-usage feed, so no bullpen claim is made.

Venue: Busch Stadium; roof: Open. Weather snapshot: 37.3 C, 14.0 km/h wind, blowing out to CF, 5% precipitation probability.

Total selection: Over 9.5. Frozen price: -110 at fanduel; retrieved 2026-07-27T11:42:26.971Z.

Uncertainty and missing evidence

Over remains the deterministic qualified angle; outcomes remain uncertain.

Fact provenance

Frozen forecast d94d398dad4e · snapshot 2026-07-27T14:56:27.855Z · prompt mlb-game-editorial-v5-closed-plan · schema 3.

Odds snapshot a6bee262-ca9a-4a83-ac1d-2391f8e49bb2 · retrieved 2026-07-27T11:42:26.971Z · US-region quote — not Ontario-specific; Ontario lines at the same book may differ.

One complete game-specific analysis is public. A verified free account unlocks the other two immutable market projections without changing this published selection.Unlock all three markets
Official result

Game result and prediction grades

The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.

Final

Chicago Cubs
7
St. Louis Cardinals
3

Settled Jul 28, 1:00 AM ET · MLB Advanced Media

  • TotalWon

    Over 9.5

    Published price
    -110
    Sportsbook
    fanduel
    Model probability
    56.4%

    Graded against the official final score · Jul 28, 1:00 AM ET · source mlb-statsapi