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Game Forecast · First Pitch 7:10 PM ET

Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds

StatVane Editorial: Under Preferred for Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds

CLE

Away

Cleveland Guardians

at
CIN

Home

Cincinnati Reds

Great American Ball ParkStatvane matchup

Qualified angleMixed evidenceDeterministic fallback

StatVane Editorial: Under Preferred for Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds

Market
Total
Selection
Under 8.5
Frozen price
-108 · fanduel
Model
62.0%
No-vig market
49.6%
EV / unit
+0.1931

The deterministic qualified angle is Under total from the frozen pregame snapshot.

The deterministic decision is QUALIFIED. Total selection: Under 8.5. Frozen price: -108 at fanduel; retrieved 2026-07-27T11:42:26.971Z. Model probability: 62.0%. No-vig market probability: 49.6%. Model edge versus the no-vig market: 12.4 percentage points. Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.1931.

Cleveland Guardians probable starter: Slade Cecconi. Cincinnati Reds probable starter: Chase Burns.

Cleveland Guardians recent 10-game sample: 4.40 runs scored and 5.00 runs allowed per game. Cincinnati Reds recent 10-game sample: 4.30 runs scored and 4.60 runs allowed per game.

Bullpen condition is not modeled yet - Statvane has no reliever-usage feed, so no bullpen claim is made.

Venue: Great American Ball Park; roof: Open. Weather snapshot: 34.5 C, 10.7 km/h wind, cross wind (3B side), 8% precipitation probability.

Total selection: Under 8.5. Frozen price: -108 at fanduel; retrieved 2026-07-27T11:42:26.971Z.

Uncertainty and missing evidence

Under remains the deterministic qualified angle; outcomes remain uncertain.

Fact provenance

Frozen forecast 161fefe46b95 · snapshot 2026-07-27T14:56:27.855Z · prompt mlb-game-editorial-v5-closed-plan · schema 3.

Odds snapshot 20c95906-6473-4f5c-a1a1-b6e9c2a5307c · retrieved 2026-07-27T11:42:26.971Z · US-region quote — not Ontario-specific; Ontario lines at the same book may differ.

One complete game-specific analysis is public. A verified free account unlocks the other two immutable market projections without changing this published selection.Unlock all three markets
Official result

Game result and prediction grades

The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.

Final

Cleveland Guardians
6
Cincinnati Reds
5

Settled Jul 28, 5:00 PM ET · MLB Advanced Media

  • TotalVoid

    Under 8.5

    Published price
    -108
    Sportsbook
    fanduel
    Model probability
    62.0%

    Voided — game postponed · Jul 27, 9:00 PM ET · source mlb-statsapi