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Game Forecast · First Pitch 6:40 PM ET

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins

StatVane Editorial: Under Preferred for Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins

PHL

Away

Philadelphia Phillies

at
MIA

Home

Miami Marlins

loanDepot parkStatvane matchup

Qualified angleMixed evidenceDeterministic fallback

StatVane Editorial: Under Preferred for Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins

Market
Total
Selection
Under 7.5
Frozen price
-105 · fanduel
Model
64.6%
No-vig market
48.9%
EV / unit
+0.2621

The deterministic qualified angle is Under total from the frozen pregame snapshot.

The deterministic decision is QUALIFIED. Total selection: Under 7.5. Frozen price: -105 at fanduel; retrieved 2026-07-27T11:42:26.971Z. Model probability: 64.6%. No-vig market probability: 48.9%. Model edge versus the no-vig market: 15.7 percentage points. Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.2621.

Philadelphia Phillies probable starter: Zack Wheeler. Miami Marlins probable starter: Tyler Phillips.

Philadelphia Phillies recent 10-game sample: 3.50 runs scored and 4.20 runs allowed per game. Miami Marlins recent 10-game sample: 2.50 runs scored and 4.70 runs allowed per game.

Bullpen condition is not modeled yet - Statvane has no reliever-usage feed, so no bullpen claim is made.

Venue: loanDepot park; roof: Retractable. Weather snapshot: 26.4 C, 12.8 km/h wind, cross wind (3B side), 18% precipitation probability.

Total selection: Under 7.5. Frozen price: -105 at fanduel; retrieved 2026-07-27T11:42:26.971Z.

Uncertainty and missing evidence

Under remains the deterministic qualified angle; outcomes remain uncertain.

Fact provenance

Frozen forecast 6d7ca00a5044 · snapshot 2026-07-27T14:56:27.855Z · prompt mlb-game-editorial-v5-closed-plan · schema 3.

Odds snapshot 4342ed3c-a106-473c-91b0-5836de3ef995 · retrieved 2026-07-27T11:42:26.971Z · US-region quote — not Ontario-specific; Ontario lines at the same book may differ.

One complete game-specific analysis is public. A verified free account unlocks the other two immutable market projections without changing this published selection.Unlock all three markets
Official result

Game result and prediction grades

The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.

Final

Philadelphia Phillies
7
Miami Marlins
8

Settled Jul 27, 10:00 PM ET · MLB Advanced Media

  • TotalLost

    Under 7.5

    Published price
    -105
    Sportsbook
    fanduel
    Model probability
    64.6%

    Graded against the official final score · Jul 27, 11:00 PM ET · source mlb-statsapi