Skip to content
STATVANE
← 2026-07-28 Slate Board

Game Forecast · First Pitch 6:40 PM ET

Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers

StatVane Editorial: Under Preferred for Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers

BAL

Away

Baltimore Orioles

at
DET

Home

Detroit Tigers

Comerica ParkStatvane matchup

Qualified angleMixed evidenceGrounded analysis

StatVane Editorial: Under Preferred for Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers

Market
Total
Selection
Under 9.5
Frozen price
-120 · fanduel
Model
66.4%
No-vig market
51.9%
EV / unit
+0.2166

The deterministic qualified angle is Under total from the frozen pregame snapshot.

Frozen pregame evidence supports the deterministic selection. Total selection: Under 9.5. Frozen price: -120 at fanduel; retrieved 2026-07-28T06:00:28.948Z. Model probability: 66.4%. No-vig market probability: 51.9%. Model edge versus the no-vig market: 14.4 percentage points. Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.2166. Baltimore Orioles probable starter: Dean Kremer. Detroit Tigers probable starter: Troy Melton. Baltimore Orioles recent 10-game sample: 5.00 runs scored and 3.20 runs allowed per game. Detroit Tigers recent 10-game sample: 3.40 runs scored and 3.50 runs allowed per game.

Uncertainty and missing evidence

Under remains the deterministic qualified position; outcomes remain uncertain. The deterministic decision is QUALIFIED. Total selection: Under 9.5. Frozen price: -120 at fanduel; retrieved 2026-07-28T06:00:28.948Z. Model edge versus the no-vig market: 14.4 percentage points. Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.2166. Model probability: 66.4%. No-vig market probability: 51.9%.

Fact provenance

Frozen forecast 383b2b3e5f05 · snapshot 2026-07-28T09:00:52.658Z · prompt mlb-game-editorial-v5-closed-plan · schema 3.

Odds snapshot bb132057-ab8f-4d18-863c-a6567ca52596 · retrieved 2026-07-28T06:00:28.948Z · US-region quote — not Ontario-specific; Ontario lines at the same book may differ.

One complete game-specific analysis is public. A verified free account unlocks the other two immutable market projections without changing this published selection.Unlock all three markets
Official result

Game result and prediction grades

The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.

Final

Baltimore Orioles
0
Detroit Tigers
14

Settled Jul 28, 10:00 PM ET · MLB Advanced Media

  • TotalLost

    Under 9.5

    Published price
    -120
    Sportsbook
    fanduel
    Model probability
    66.4%

    Graded against the official final score · Jul 28, 11:00 PM ET · source mlb-statsapi