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Game Forecast · First Pitch 9:40 PM ET

Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres

StatVane Editorial: San Diego Padres Preferred Over Colorado Rockies

DEN

Away

Colorado Rockies

at
SD

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San Diego Padres

Petco ParkStatvane matchup

Qualified angleMixed evidenceGrounded analysis

StatVane Editorial: San Diego Padres Preferred Over Colorado Rockies

Market
Moneyline
Selection
San Diego Padres
Frozen price
-180 · fanduel
Model
70.5%
No-vig market
61.8%
EV / unit
+0.0967

The deterministic qualified angle is San Diego Padres moneyline from the frozen pregame snapshot.

The deterministic selection is supported by the frozen pregame record. Moneyline selection: San Diego Padres. Frozen price: -180 at fanduel; retrieved 2026-07-28T06:00:28.948Z. Model probability: 70.5%. No-vig market probability: 61.8%. Model edge versus the no-vig market: 8.7 percentage points. Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.0967. Colorado Rockies probable starter: Michael Lorenzen. San Diego Padres probable starter: Michael King. Colorado Rockies recent 10-game sample: 4.10 runs scored and 5.30 runs allowed per game. San Diego Padres recent 10-game sample: 6.40 runs scored and 4.70 runs allowed per game.

Uncertainty and missing evidence

The deterministic qualified position remains San Diego Padres; outcomes remain uncertain. The deterministic decision is QUALIFIED. Moneyline selection: San Diego Padres. Frozen price: -180 at fanduel; retrieved 2026-07-28T06:00:28.948Z. Model edge versus the no-vig market: 8.7 percentage points. Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.0967. Model probability: 70.5%. No-vig market probability: 61.8%.

Fact provenance

Frozen forecast ada2f0f245b7 · snapshot 2026-07-28T09:00:52.658Z · prompt mlb-game-editorial-v5-closed-plan · schema 3.

Odds snapshot 54a6eac5-0c6f-4ba9-b15a-e626b6fbd92d · retrieved 2026-07-28T06:00:28.948Z · US-region quote — not Ontario-specific; Ontario lines at the same book may differ.

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Official result

Game result and prediction grades

The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.

Final

Colorado Rockies
7
San Diego Padres
8

Settled Jul 29, 3:00 AM ET · MLB Advanced Media

  • MoneylineWon

    San Diego Padres

    Published price
    -180
    Sportsbook
    fanduel
    Model probability
    70.5%

    Graded against the official final score · Jul 29, 3:00 AM ET · source mlb-statsapi