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Game Forecast · First Pitch 9:38 PM ET

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels

StatVane Editorial: Houston Astros Preferred Over Los Angeles Angels

HOU

Away

Houston Astros

at
LA

Home

Los Angeles Angels

Angel StadiumStatvane matchup

Qualified angleMixed evidenceGrounded analysis

StatVane Editorial: Houston Astros Preferred Over Los Angeles Angels

Market
Moneyline
Selection
Houston Astros
Frozen price
-106 · fanduel
Model
69.9%
No-vig market
49.6%
EV / unit
+0.3578

The deterministic qualified angle is Houston Astros moneyline from the frozen pregame snapshot.

The deterministic selection is supported by the frozen pregame record. The deterministic decision is QUALIFIED. Moneyline selection: Houston Astros. Frozen price: -106 at fanduel; retrieved 2026-07-28T06:00:28.948Z. Model probability: 69.9%. No-vig market probability: 49.6%. Model edge versus the no-vig market: 20.3 percentage points. Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.3578. Houston Astros probable starter: Peter Lambert. Los Angeles Angels probable starter: Reid Detmers. Houston Astros recent 10-game sample: 5.00 runs scored and 4.30 runs allowed per game. Los Angeles Angels recent 10-game sample: 2.70 runs scored and 3.40 runs allowed per game.

Uncertainty and missing evidence

Houston Astros remains the deterministic qualified position; outcomes remain uncertain. The deterministic decision is QUALIFIED. Moneyline selection: Houston Astros. Frozen price: -106 at fanduel; retrieved 2026-07-28T06:00:28.948Z. Model edge versus the no-vig market: 20.3 percentage points. Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.3578. Model probability: 69.9%. No-vig market probability: 49.6%.

Fact provenance

Frozen forecast ae572b5fac2b · snapshot 2026-07-28T09:00:52.658Z · prompt mlb-game-editorial-v5-closed-plan · schema 3.

Odds snapshot 297af232-cc0e-4042-a177-51dafecc018d · retrieved 2026-07-28T06:00:28.948Z · US-region quote — not Ontario-specific; Ontario lines at the same book may differ.

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Official result

Game result and prediction grades

The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.

Final

Houston Astros
3
Los Angeles Angels
2

Settled Jul 29, 1:00 AM ET · MLB Advanced Media

  • MoneylineWon

    Houston Astros

    Published price
    -106
    Sportsbook
    fanduel
    Model probability
    69.9%

    Graded against the official final score · Jul 29, 1:00 AM ET · source mlb-statsapi