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← 2026-07-28 Slate Board

Game Forecast · First Pitch 7:40 PM ET

New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox

StatVane Editorial: Chicago White Sox Preferred Over New York Yankees

NY

Away

New York Yankees

at
CHI

Home

Chicago White Sox

Rate FieldStatvane matchup

Qualified angleMixed evidenceGrounded analysis

StatVane Editorial: Chicago White Sox Preferred Over New York Yankees

Market
Moneyline
Selection
Chicago White Sox
Frozen price
+115 · espnbet
Model
53.1%
No-vig market
44.7%
EV / unit
+0.1425

The deterministic qualified angle is Chicago White Sox moneyline from the frozen pregame snapshot.

Frozen pregame evidence supports the deterministic selection. Moneyline selection: Chicago White Sox. Frozen price: +115 at espnbet; retrieved 2026-07-28T06:00:28.948Z. Model probability: 53.1%. No-vig market probability: 44.7%. Model edge versus the no-vig market: 8.4 percentage points. Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.1425. New York Yankees probable starter: Gerrit Cole. Chicago White Sox probable starter: Anthony Kay. New York Yankees recent 10-game sample: 3.30 runs scored and 2.90 runs allowed per game. Chicago White Sox recent 10-game sample: 5.80 runs scored and 3.10 runs allowed per game.

Uncertainty and missing evidence

Chicago White Sox remains the deterministic qualified position; outcomes remain uncertain. The deterministic decision is QUALIFIED. Moneyline selection: Chicago White Sox. Frozen price: +115 at espnbet; retrieved 2026-07-28T06:00:28.948Z. Model edge versus the no-vig market: 8.4 percentage points. Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.1425. Model probability: 53.1%. No-vig market probability: 44.7%.

Fact provenance

Frozen forecast aac3deadbc08 · snapshot 2026-07-28T09:00:52.658Z · prompt mlb-game-editorial-v5-closed-plan · schema 3.

Odds snapshot 6920e2b5-7320-4309-b9ea-2ff0582195c1 · retrieved 2026-07-28T06:00:28.948Z · US-region quote — not Ontario-specific; Ontario lines at the same book may differ.

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Official result

Game result and prediction grades

The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.

Final

New York Yankees
3
Chicago White Sox
2

Settled Jul 28, 11:00 PM ET · MLB Advanced Media

  • MoneylineLost

    Chicago White Sox

    Published price
    +115
    Sportsbook
    espnbet
    Model probability
    53.1%

    Graded against the official final score · Jul 28, 11:00 PM ET · source mlb-statsapi