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Game Forecast · First Pitch 6:40 PM ET

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins

Statvane Editorial: Miami Marlins Favored Over Philadelphia Phillies

PHL

Away

Philadelphia Phillies

at
MIA

Home

Miami Marlins

loanDepot parkStatvane matchup

Qualified angleMixed evidenceGrounded analysis

Statvane Editorial: Miami Marlins Favored Over Philadelphia Phillies

Market
Moneyline
Selection
Miami Marlins
Frozen price
-110 · fanduel
Model
63.6%
No-vig market
50.4%
EV / unit
+0.2148

The selection is the Miami Marlins at a frozen price of -110, supported by a model probability of 63.6%.

The model prefers the Marlins due to their stronger starting pitcher in Sandy Alcantara and better recent run prevention compared to the Phillies.

Aaron Nola is the probable starter for the Phillies, while Sandy Alcantara is slated to start for the Marlins.

The Phillies have scored 3.50 and allowed 4.20 runs per game over their last ten, while the Marlins have scored 2.50 and allowed 4.70 runs per game over the same span.

Bullpen condition is not modeled yet - Statvane has no reliever-usage feed, so no bullpen claim is made.

The game will be played at loanDepot park with a retractable roof, under clear skies and a temperature of 28.6 C with a cross wind blowing to the 3B side at 14.5 km/h.

Lineup evidence is unavailable. A verified injury feed is unavailable in the frozen snapshot.

Moneyline selection: Miami Marlins. Frozen price: -110 at fanduel; retrieved 2026-07-28T06:00:28.948Z. Opening-price and line-movement history is unavailable in the frozen snapshot.

Uncertainty and missing evidence

The model favors the Miami Marlins on the moneyline with a 63.6% probability and a positive expected value of 0.2148 per unit at the frozen price.

Fact provenance

Frozen forecast 49bc0e82f8eb · snapshot 2026-07-28T09:00:52.658Z · prompt mlb-game-editorial-v2 · schema 1.

Odds snapshot 9001dd31-ea68-4737-94f2-b39246108793 · retrieved 2026-07-28T06:00:28.948Z · US-region quote — not Ontario-specific; Ontario lines at the same book may differ.

One complete game-specific analysis is public. A verified free account unlocks the other two immutable market projections without changing this published selection.Unlock all three markets
Official result

Game result and prediction grades

The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.

Final

Philadelphia Phillies
0
Miami Marlins
1

Settled Jul 28, 10:00 PM ET · MLB Advanced Media

  • MoneylineWon

    Miami Marlins

    Published price
    -110
    Sportsbook
    fanduel
    Model probability
    63.6%

    Graded against the official final score · Jul 28, 11:00 PM ET · source mlb-statsapi