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Game Forecast · First Pitch 12:35 PM ET

New York Mets at Washington Nationals

StatVane Editorial: No Qualified Wager for New York Mets at Washington Nationals

NY

Away

New York Mets

at
DC

Home

Washington Nationals

Nationals ParkStatvane matchup

No betMixed evidenceDeterministic fallback

StatVane Editorial: No Qualified Wager for New York Mets at Washington Nationals

Market
Total
Selection
Over 8.5
Frozen price
+100 · betmgm
Model
68.0%
No-vig market
47.8%
EV / unit
+0.3592

NO BET: No market met the deterministic qualification requirements in the frozen pregame snapshot.

The deterministic decision is NO BET. Total selection: Over 8.5. Frozen price: +100 at betmgm; retrieved 2026-09-26T12:00:52.918Z. Model probability: 68.0%. No-vig market probability: 47.8%. Model edge versus the no-vig market: 20.1 percentage points. Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.3592.

New York Mets probable starter: Jonah Tong. Washington Nationals probable starter: Connelly Early.

New York Mets recent 10-game sample: 2.70 runs scored and 3.70 runs allowed per game. Washington Nationals recent 10-game sample: 6.10 runs scored and 4.90 runs allowed per game.

Bullpen condition is not modeled yet - Statvane has no reliever-usage feed, so no bullpen claim is made.

Venue: Nationals Park; roof: Open. Weather snapshot: 19.7 C, 21.0 km/h wind, blowing in from CF, 33% precipitation probability.

Total selection: Over 8.5. Frozen price: +100 at betmgm; retrieved 2026-09-26T12:00:52.918Z.

Uncertainty and missing evidence

The correct deterministic action is NO BET.

Fact provenance

Frozen forecast be3818df333f · snapshot 2026-09-26T12:00:58.766Z · prompt mlb-game-editorial-v5-closed-plan · schema 3.

Odds snapshot e7aefafb-f500-471a-9a23-369aeadd9dd2 · retrieved 2026-09-26T12:00:52.918Z · US-region quote — not Ontario-specific; Ontario lines at the same book may differ.

One complete game-specific analysis is public. A verified free account unlocks the other two immutable market projections without changing this published selection.Unlock all three markets
Official result

Game result and prediction grades

The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.

Final

New York Mets
7
Washington Nationals
1

Settled Sep 26, 5:00 PM ET · MLB Advanced Media

  • TotalLost

    Over 8.5

    Published price
    +100
    Sportsbook
    betmgm
    Model probability
    68.0%

    Graded against the official final score · Sep 26, 5:00 PM ET · source mlb-statsapi