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Game Forecast · First Pitch 1:10 PM ET

Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers

StatVane Editorial: No Qualified Wager for Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers

PIT

Away

Pittsburgh Pirates

at
DET

Home

Detroit Tigers

Comerica ParkStatvane matchup

No betMixed evidenceDeterministic fallback

StatVane Editorial: No Qualified Wager for Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers

Market
Run line
Selection
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5
Frozen price
-200 · draftkings
Model
77.9%
No-vig market
63.7%
EV / unit
+0.1688

NO BET: No market met the deterministic qualification requirements in the frozen pregame snapshot.

The deterministic decision is NO BET. Run line selection: Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5. Frozen price: -200 at draftkings; retrieved 2026-09-26T06:00:31.111Z. Model probability: 77.9%. No-vig market probability: 63.7%. Model edge versus the no-vig market: 14.2 percentage points. Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.1688.

Pittsburgh Pirates probable starter: Kirby Yates. Detroit Tigers probable starter: Justin Verlander.

Pittsburgh Pirates recent 10-game sample: 5.30 runs scored and 3.60 runs allowed per game. Detroit Tigers recent 10-game sample: 3.40 runs scored and 3.50 runs allowed per game.

Bullpen condition is not modeled yet - Statvane has no reliever-usage feed, so no bullpen claim is made.

Venue: Comerica Park; roof: Open. Weather snapshot: 21.5 C, 13.3 km/h wind, blowing out to CF, 0% precipitation probability.

Run line selection: Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5. Frozen price: -200 at draftkings; retrieved 2026-09-26T06:00:31.111Z.

Uncertainty and missing evidence

The correct deterministic action is NO BET.

Fact provenance

Frozen forecast a03c485c359a · snapshot 2026-09-26T12:00:58.766Z · prompt mlb-game-editorial-v5-closed-plan · schema 3.

Odds snapshot 53f64008-b46f-428d-a65c-aca762dd00e3 · retrieved 2026-09-26T06:00:31.111Z · US-region quote — not Ontario-specific; Ontario lines at the same book may differ.

One complete game-specific analysis is public. A verified free account unlocks the other two immutable market projections without changing this published selection.Unlock all three markets
Official result

Game result and prediction grades

The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.

Final

Pittsburgh Pirates
3
Detroit Tigers
4

Settled Sep 26, 5:00 PM ET · MLB Advanced Media

  • Run LineWon

    Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5

    Published price
    -200
    Sportsbook
    draftkings
    Model probability
    77.9%

    Graded against the official final score · Sep 26, 5:00 PM ET · source mlb-statsapi