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Game Forecast · First Pitch 7:15 PM ET

Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies

StatVane Editorial: No Qualified Wager for Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies

TB

Away

Tampa Bay Rays

at
PHL

Home

Philadelphia Phillies

Citizens Bank ParkStatvane matchup

No betMixed evidenceDeterministic fallback

StatVane Editorial: No Qualified Wager for Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies

Market
Moneyline
Selection
Tampa Bay Rays
Frozen price
-105 · espnbet
Model
67.8%
No-vig market
48.9%
EV / unit
+0.3235

NO BET: No market met the deterministic qualification requirements in the frozen pregame snapshot.

The deterministic decision is NO BET. Moneyline selection: Tampa Bay Rays. Frozen price: -105 at espnbet; retrieved 2026-09-26T12:00:52.918Z. Model probability: 67.8%. No-vig market probability: 48.9%. Model edge versus the no-vig market: 18.9 percentage points. Expected value per unit at the frozen price: 0.3235.

Tampa Bay Rays probable starter: Griffin Jax.

Tampa Bay Rays recent 10-game sample: 4.70 runs scored and 4.70 runs allowed per game. Philadelphia Phillies recent 10-game sample: 3.50 runs scored and 4.20 runs allowed per game.

Bullpen condition is not modeled yet - Statvane has no reliever-usage feed, so no bullpen claim is made.

Venue: Citizens Bank Park; roof: Open. Weather snapshot: 14.8 C, 17.9 km/h wind, blowing in from CF, 19% precipitation probability.

Moneyline selection: Tampa Bay Rays. Frozen price: -105 at espnbet; retrieved 2026-09-26T12:00:52.918Z.

Uncertainty and missing evidence

The correct deterministic action is NO BET.

Fact provenance

Frozen forecast 9071d4ab7e2c · snapshot 2026-09-26T12:00:58.766Z · prompt mlb-game-editorial-v5-closed-plan · schema 3.

Odds snapshot 60e5a5e1-1298-4f0e-ade9-92bb0c0896e2 · retrieved 2026-09-26T12:00:52.918Z · US-region quote — not Ontario-specific; Ontario lines at the same book may differ.

One complete game-specific analysis is public. A verified free account unlocks the other two immutable market projections without changing this published selection.Unlock all three markets
Official result

Game result and prediction grades

The result of the game and the result of each prediction are separate facts. Both are shown; neither is inferred from the other.

Live · inning 4

Tampa Bay Rays
3
Philadelphia Phillies
0

Published markets for this game have not been settled yet.